Is Lockdown Ever Going to End? It has not ‘KILLED’ the VIRUS and was never going to. And possibly, We will have to learn to live with COVID-19, until 2022, according to Researchers?
Mangaluru: While we Mangaloreans observed a Total Lockdown on Sunday, and while our Country has moved into what is being called Lockdown 5.0. In some ways, this phase is more of a Re-opening 1.0, since certain activities are now permitted in all zones – green, orange and red – with full restrictions only applying to containment zones. For example, even in red zones where the number of COVID-19 cases are still high, private establishments are allowed to operate at 33% staff strength, and non-essential movement is permitted between 7 am and 9 pm.- and in Dakshina Kannada, the DC has announced no movement of people and vehicles between 8 pm and 5 am.
After more than five weeks of a complete ban on the movement of anything but essentials, in May India slowly got limping back to normality. The massive crowds that gathered outside liquor shops, as well as the spike in traffic data, were the clear signs of a shift. But what does that actually mean? What did five weeks of one of the world’s harshest lockdowns – announced with just four hours’ of notice – achieve? And does this mean your life goes back to normal? There has been “No decline in COVID-19 cases despite lockdown”. When he announced what was initially supposed to be a three-week lockdown back in March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the aim was to break the chain of transmission of the virus, warning Indians that if they were not vigilant over the next 21 days, it could set the Country back by 21 years.
India locked down very early into the spread of the novel coronavirus in the Country, with around 500 cases and ten deaths. As of today, India has 261177 active cases and 20201 deaths. Latest reports reveal that Coronavirus cases in Karnataka have crossed 25,000-mark even as the state capital Bengaluru’s COVID-19 tally surpassed 10,000-mark. With coronavirus cases rising in the state, the Karnataka government is mulling inducting medical and nursing students from medical colleges and nursing schools in Bengaluru. While the state reported 1,843 new Coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, Bengaluru had registered 981 COVID-19 cases on Monday.
Karnataka now has 25,317 coronavirus cases, and Bengaluru has 10,561 COVID-19 cases. 680 COVID-19 patients recovered and were discharged from hospitals in the state in the last 24 hours, Bengaluru accounted for 278. Karnataka has reported 30 coronavirus deaths, Bengaluru has registered 10 COVID-19 fatalities. In Karnataka, there are 14,385 coronavirus active cases till July 6. In the state, Ballari reported 99 coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, Uttara Kannada 81 COVID19 cases, Bengaluru rural 68, Dharwad 56, and Kalaburgi 53 cases., and in Dakshina Kannada, 24 deaths were reported.
The numbers haven’t grown as quickly as many expected them to, an indicator that suggests the lockdown may have helped reduce the spread of the virus. But worryingly, the lockdown doesn’t seem to have led to a downward trend in the number of new cases. The major problem right now is that we do not see a declining trend. After 40 days of stringent lockdown, which got further extended, the case count should have come down. Many other countries have recorded a downward trend in their COVID-19 curve. If you compare the number of daily new cases in India with other countries that went into lockdown, often a lot less restrictive than India’s, they have tended to see an initial spike in cases followed by a peak after which the number of new cases begins to come down.
India’s chart instead shows a steady rise in new cases. The trends are somewhat hard to read for India, not least because each state has its own approach. But what is clear is that the infection numbers – and the rate of growth of new cases – are continuing to rise. What this means is that even when India pulled out the nuclear option – a national lockdown that would mean the entire economy remains shut, leaving millions in distress – the virus has continued to grow. Why is the lockdown being eased? Modi’s initial explanation for the lockdown was that it was meant to “break the chain of transmission” of the virus. If, by that, he meant eradicate COVID-19 from India by ensuring it doesn’t spread beyond those who already had it at the time, that has clearly not happened. Over the last few weeks, the stated aim of the lockdown has also shifted constantly. First, it was to break the chain of transmission. Then, on April 17, more than three weeks after the lockdown was announced, the government said it had reduced the “doubling time” of infections, meaning the number of days for cases to double.
Though that number has indeed come down from the early days of the lockdown, the government never identified a stated level it wanted to reach before it would start to relax restrictions. India cannot claim to have reached the peak of new infections, or even a good sense of when that peak might come since it moved into the lockdown so early. What that means is that the easing of restrictions appears to be coming primarily because the country simply can’t afford to be shut for much longer. The effects on livelihoods and indeed lives would be too much, even if there is a clear explanation of what has changed now versus, say, three weeks ago.
However, this lack of a clear approach leaves open the possibility that what are now cluster containment zones – areas with a high number of cases where full lockdowns remain in place – will continue to grow if case counts go up. And it’s for sure that, “A lockdown was never going to kill COVID-19”? It is worthwhile remembering: no matter what the WhatsApp forwards about sunlight and clanging pots and pans may have said – and despite outrageous graphs put out by Indian authorities – the lockdown was never going to be a way for India to bring its infected count down to zero. That simply isn’t how highly infectious diseases work.
The idea of flattening the curve through social distancing – as we explained back at the start of March – is to reduce the number of people who get infected at the same time, so that the health system is not suddenly overwhelmed in a way that might lead to avoidable deaths. A lockdown is the most extreme version of social distancing since it is government mandated and comes at considerable cost to the economy and individuals. Its aim is to buy time for the authorities to prepare for a further outbreak and for health departments to ready hospitals and infrastructure for a deluge of patients.
Has this happened? Authorities around the country have begun to prepare hospitals and care centres to treat COVID-19 patients. Some of this appears to have happened later than expected, with the Centre only enumerating health infrastructure at the district level in week five of the lockdown. Similarly, although the internal migrant crisis was apparent from the very first few days of the lockdown, the Union Health Minister spoke to states only five weeks later about a strategy to prevent the spread of the virus into rural areas by migrants, who are finally being allowed to move. It is unclear why the government didn’t take this action before ordering that migrants can return home.
Bureaucratic mess-ups both in the procurement of Personal Protective Equipment and rapid testing kits have somewhat frittered away the time bought by the lockdown. This has meant that, even without a massive spike in numbers, hospitals in Mumbai – the worst-hit city so far – already appear overwhelmed. Down to Earth took a close look at what the Country did over the course of the lockdown, with conclusions that do not inspire much confidence. Now, as cities and states open up, and people begin to gather and mix again, the numbers will inevitably go up. The lockdown was meant to prepare India for that second wave. Unfortunately, it is likely that the first wave has yet to recede.
As the virus rampaged through China, Western Europe and then the United States, many wondered why India wasn’t badly hit by COVID-19 – especially since nearby Iran saw a huge spike in cases. Although some of that may have been down to India’s decision to prevent people from coming into the Country and locking down early into the spread of the virus, many theories went around suggesting that maybe Indians had some sort of immunity to the disease, or that it didn’t spread as easily in hotter places.
There is as yet no conclusive evidence to suggest that Indians have any sort of natural immunity to the virus. Other theories have also yet to be substantiated, such as the suggestion that India’s lower numbers may have been aided by the BCG vaccine – meant to protect against tuberculosis. A survey of existing research suggests that the virus does die out quickly if there is higher heat and humidity. Still, academics caution against presuming this will be a silver bullet, especially since dense cities like India’s or the usage of air conditioners could nullify those effects.
So, what happens next? If it isn’t clear from the weight of all of those details, here is what is likely: the number of cases will continue to rise in India, and the danger of contracting the novel coronavirus will remain very real, even if the lockdown ends. Containment zones and contact tracing might attempt to slow down the spread of the virus, but these tasks will become even more difficult for authorities once the lockdown has ended and people are mixing much more. Heat and humidity might have an effect, but India’s dense cities will remain vulnerable regardless.
That means we can expect numbers to keep rising over the next few months. Currently, the cases are continuing to grow at a flat rate, even more at times, so it’s very difficult to predict when the peak will come. But the peak is expected this month (July). That is the reason why we need to be prepared for it and more vigilant to bring the number of cases down. Social distancing guidelines will remain in place – in public spaces, on public transport, in offices, on aeroplanes and beyond. Many countries have banned large gatherings until later in the year, and question marks remain about the future of businesses like gyms, bars, movie theatres, music concerts and sports leagues, all of which are difficult to operate without large crowds. Travel, especially across states and countries, will not be the same.
Their conclusion suggests that we have to be prepared to live with COVID-19 – and all the safety measures it necessitates – until 2022.
(With Points from India Today)
