Karnataka Polls 2018: Exit polls give BJP the edge, Congress close second
Bengaluru: Exit polls released by various news organisations and survey agencies on Saturday revealed the possibility of a hung assembly with most of them predicting that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will likely emerge as the single-largest party in the Karnataka assembly election.
However, some organisations also suggest that Congress could be the single-largest party in what is playing out to be a closely-fought contest.
The exit polls were released immediately after the voting exercise concluded in the state. The final voter turnout was 70 percent, marginally lower than 71.4 percent recorded in the 2013 Assembly polls.
However, the final tally could be different as the surveys do not account for voting for the entire day, but until a specific period of time.
Here’s what various exit polls have revealed (these are first-cut figures):
Times Now-VMR
The exit poll by Times Now-VMR suggest that the election would yield a hung assembly with the Congress emerging as the single-largest party with 90-103 seats while the BJP would win 80-93 seats. The JD(S) likely to play the ’kingmaker’ with 31-39 seats.
In term of vote share, Congress leads with 28.4 percent vote share. The saffron party will finish second 34.6 percent. HD Kumaraswamy-led JD(S) would have a 19.8 percent vote share, the survey suggests. Other candidates will have a 7.2 percent vote share.
India Today-Axis My India
According to the poll by India Today-Axis My India, Congress is expected to be the single-largest party in Karnataka with 106-118 seats while BJP will finish second with 79-92 seats. JD(S) will bag 22-30 seats.
In terms of vote share, the Congress is expected to finish first with 39 percent votes followed by BJP’s 35 percent and JD(S)’s 17 percent. Other candidates are likely to get nine percent votes, the poll suggests.
Republic TV-Jan ki Baat
The survey by Republic TV-Jan ki Baat suggests that BJP is likely to be the single-largest party with 95-114 seats while the incumbent Congress will settle for 73-82 seats. The JD(S) will bag 32-43 seats, the poll has revealed.
NewsX-CNX
The exit poll conducted by NewsX-CNX has also predicted that BJP is likely to lead with 102-110 seats while the Congress will finish distant second with 72-78 seats. The JD(S) will pick up 35-39 seats.
ABP News-CSDS
The exit polls put out by ABP-CSDS show that the BJP is likely to emerge as the single-largest party with 97-109 seats followed by Congress with 87-99 seats. The JD(S), performing worse than in 2013, could end up with 21-30 seats.
The BJP is likely to have a vote share of 41 percent just above Congress’ 39 percent. JDS would pick up a vote share of 17 percent, the poll suggests.
CVoter
The exit poll by CVoter too has suggested that BJP holds the lead with 103 seats while Congress is coming second with 93 seats. The JD(S) will finish third with 25 seats, it adds.
Catch the LIVE updates from the Karnataka polls here: Exit polls divided between Congress and BJP, total voter turnout at 70%
During the previous Assembly election in the year 2013, Congress had won a simple majority with 122 seats. Both, the BJP as well as the JD(S) had settled for 40 seats each. BS Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) had fought the election separately and had secured six seats.
Independent candidates had bagged nine seats while the Badagara Shramika Raitala Congress (BSRCP) won four seats.
Congress’ vote share was around 36.6 percent while both BJP and JD(S)’s vote share was around 20 percent each.
The Karnataka Assembly has a total of 225 members. However, only 224 of them are elected while one is nominated to the House.
The exit polls do not include predictions for two seats — Jayanagar constituency and Bengaluru’s Rajarajeshwari Nagar constituency.
The Election Commission (EC) had last evening postponed voting for Bengaluru’s Rajarajeswari Nagar constituency to May 28 pending enquiry into the voter ID row. Nearly 10,000 voter identity cards were recovered from a flat in the constituency, leading to a slugfest between the BJP and the Congress. The counting for this constituency will happen on May 31.
The polling authority said that there was “definite inference” to suggest that efforts were made to induce voters.
The Commission had earlier countermanded polling in the Jayanagar constituency following the death of BJP candidate VN Vijay Kumar.
Previous trends and opinion polls
Multiple opinion polls had suggested that Congress would retain power with a slim majority. However, some opinion polls had suggested that the election would yield a hung assembly and that the JD(S) would emerge as the ‘kingmaker’.
Significance
Karnataka is currently one of the few states to have a Congress government. A loss here, would leave the Congress with just Punjab, Mizoram and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
The BJP is pushing hard to make inroads into southern India. Karnataka was the first and only state where the BJP has tasted success. The saffron party has been desperate to win the state back.
Either way, the assembly polls assume significance from the 2019 General Election point of view. The winner will also get a major boost ahead of the assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan, slated to happen later this year.